The 326 Protest in Taiwan

As scheduled, an estimated 1 million people have taken to the streets in Taiwan to protest the anti-secession law passed by mainland China (see pics below).






Publius Pundit is doing a nice job tracking this story. What the reaction from China will be to the 326 Protest, as its being called, is unknown. One may have predicted a few strongly worded threats and military exercises, but with the Europeans surprisingly deciding not to end the arms embargo earlier this week their reaction may be more tame. While US pressure was paramount in Europe's decision not to end the ban, many have also cited the recent passage of the anti-secession law as a reason for the "temporary delay". Europeans were arguing that the embargo, enacted after the repression of protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989 by the Chinese government, was outdated and sent the wrong signal to China and the rest of the world that China should still be viewed as an irresponsible and repressive regime. However, the legs may have been cut out from under the European's argument by the tension created by China'’s anti-secession law—--a case of bad timing on the mainland’s part. Since the timing may have only stalled the lifting of the embargo, China is less apt to take any strong actions against the island, since this could further delay a lifting of the embargo (although continued US threats to retaliate against the Europeans in the area of defense contracting and technology transfers is equally if not more likely to be the cause of further delay). However, if the leadership in China sees the protests as a major blow to their ‘face’—and if domestic pressure mounts—the mainland may discount the future for the short term and take some kind of action. Then who knows where it could lead...Stay tuned...

Filed as:International Politics, China, Taiwan, United States, Europe