Update: Cross-straight Tensions on the Rise?

To follow up on my earlier discussion of current goings on in the straits:

The US called the proposed law (set to pass on Monday) "unhelpful", China has roundly criticized US criticism of the law, while President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan has called for a massive street demonstration to protest the law which he describes as a "major threat to regional stability". While many see this situation as one that could potential lead to conflict, a number of experts have weighed in to quell those fears. Essentially, these experts argue that the bill is actually meant to be mechanism by which the mainland can force Taiwan to maintain the status quo, rather than an attempt by the mainland to change it. The argument is that China fears that Chen has been pushing for the island to "creep towards independence" and this law is essentially a way to deter any further moves in that direction. Furthermore, the analysts go on to say why it is not in anyone's interest to begin a conflict and why there are significant incentives against such a scenario.

My problem with this view is the same I have had all along (and typically have towards these types of situations): it assumes that these actors can reasonably interpret each other's motives as well as control the likely responses by their domestic populations. It is assuming a degree of rational control over events. The worry isn't that these parties are itching to change the status quo right now, it is that these moves might trigger reactions that can easily take all the parties down a path to war--albeit unintentionally. China believes its law is merely a deterrent and as such will be effective. But what if Taiwan views it differently? What if this action backfires and emboldens the independence-element in Taiwan (essentially damaging the pan-blue coalition in the Parliament who are not pro-independence)? What if the rhetoric and public demonstrations on the island get out of hand, leading for calls within China that this constitutes “moves towards independence”, leading to Chen and his party amping up their own rhetoric so as to maintain their credibility and legitimacy with their domestic audience? What if Taiwan misreads US and Japanese criticism as a signal that they will defend the island should they take bold steps against China? If Taiwan reacts boldly with public demonstrations and rhetoric won't Chinese credibility be on the line? Can they afford to stay silent?

All of these questions are merely a way of saying that events have a way of spiraling out of control not because conflict was intended or even in the parties’ best interests, but because of the problems of misperception and over-(and under-) reaction. The "fog of war" also applies to the early stages of a dispute--one might call it the "fog of crises". Many times parties do not have perfect information and may misread the intentions/resolve of the other party. They may also take steps which tie their own hands, intentionally or unintentionally committing themselves to a course of action (like conflict) that they would rather not take. No one can know ex ante what actors will perceive and what unwitting committments they may make--so regardless of what is in their best interests, actors may unintentionally place themselves on a path that leads to conflict. So to view these moves as merely attempts to keep the peace is, I think, looking at the issue too narrowly and optimistically. Is my view overly pessimistic and more of a worst-case scenario? Sure. But my feeling is that in the realm of international politics such a view should always be present, if for no other reason than to balance out overly optimistic viewpoints . And when we are dealing with a potential military conflict, a conflict that could include the US, China, and Japan we need to have a balanced, cautious view of the situation.

Stay tuned for further updates on this issue...

Filed as:International Politics, China, Taiwan, United States