Catching the Fever? (will all the titles of my posts be in the form of a question?)

The media is packed these days with stories of a “democratic fever” that has apparently gripped the countries of the Middle East. Elections in Palestine and Iraq seemed to prove that democracy was compatible with the Arab world. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced (seemingly out of the blue) that for the first time presidential elections will include more than one candidate. And protestors took to the streets in Beirut demanding an end to Syrian occupation and influence in their country. So it looks like authoritarianism is on the outs in that troubled region, doesn't it? Well, not so much...

Yesterday, 500,000 pro-Syrian demonstrators took to the streets of Beirut in an apparent rebuff of the “cedar revolution” as it is now being called. Their main gripe—the apparent foreign interference in their country by….the US and France!! (Man, it’s been a while since these two guys have been bedfellows) Now the rally was of course organized by Hezbollah, which calls into question the true intentions (and nationality--can you say greyhound?) of many of the pro-Syrian protestors. But considering the small size of Lebanon’s population it is safe to assume that the majority of these protestors were indeed homegrown and supportive of the regime. [ed. although, take a gander at this incredible post on the make-up of the pro-Syrian demonstrators...]

More depressing news rolled in Thursday as Lebanon’s President reappointed pro-Syrian Prime Minister Omar Karami, the same man who resigned amidst pressure from the anti-Syrian protestors only 10 days ago. The stated intention of this move was to form a “unity government” with the opposition in order to guide the country through this 'transition'…a government that would no doubt be dominated by pro-Syrian politicians. And while anti-Syrian protestors obviously rejected the move and the government opposition has initially rejected the offer, one must consider that the powers-that-be believed it was safe enough to do so, which may indicate that the "cedar revolution" may turn out to me more of a "cedar to-do". Why risk a potentially dangerous reaction unless you believed the masses weren't that massive?

Today, as if on cue, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit questioned US claims that recent events signaled a trend toward democratization in the Middle East. Specifically, FM Gheit questioned the stability of the Iraq regime amidst the continued bombings by insurgents, as well as the degree to which pro-democracy currents have swept through Lebanon. Pointing to the pro-Syrian demonstrations held yesterday, Gheit said, “‘other trends’ are also afoot”. Additionally, the Foreign Minister noted that elections in Palestine may be providing false hope to those outside of the region since similar polls have taken place in the past, and we all know how democratic Palestine has been since then…

…All of this points to what should be a cautious view. Is the Middle East on the brink of a major wave of democratization? Maybe. But it is certainly too early to tell. This wouldn’t be the first time that regimes in the region allowed open contestation of government offices or that protestors took to the streets demanding change. The question is whether these small changes, which could easily be viewed as small steps designed to provide short-term political cover for these regimes domestically and internationally, can coalesce into stronger movements for true political change. The track record in the region is dismal to say the least. However, Latin America may provide us with some cause for hope. Many authoritarian/military regimes (something the Middle East does not want for) in that region democratized through small, initial liberalization steps that were intended to provide short-term relief for a perceived lack of legitimacy. Those steps however took on a life of there own and eventually led those regimes to negotiate their exit from power. Hopefully some regimes in the Middle East can walk a similar path to democracy, although I for one am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.

Filed as:International Politics, Lebanon, Middle East