Puzzled over our policy on Iranian nukes...

It seems as though the EU3 and Iran have struck a deal that further delays Iran's (what I see as the inevitable) acquisition of a working nuclear weapon. As a reward for agreeing to extend its freeze on uranium enrichment, Iran will be allowed to begin membership ascension to the WTO. Key to the agreement was the ability of the US and the EU to stay unified and for the US to agree to lift its veto on Iranian WTO membership:

“It was a last-minute thing that could have broken down if the Americans had stepped back [from their commitment on the WTO],” one diplomat told the Financial Times.

After the US confirmed that it would lift its perennial veto on WTO accession talks, Tehran agreed to maintain a freeze on its nuclear programme until early August, by which time France, Germany and the UK will produce new proposals for a settlement."

So while the US is refusing to take part in talks with the Iranians this latest move certainly illustrates that they certainly willing to bargain with Iran over their nuclear program. My question is why? I seriously doubt that any package of carrots can delay a nuclear Iran indefinitely. Nuclear weapons are viewed as incredibly valuable for states as a failsafe against foreign intervention (with many taking Iraq as an example of what not to do--he who hesitates ends up in a hole--and on the cover of a tabloid in his tidy whities). Iran certainly does not feel overly secure given their perception of the US, Israel and their desire to be a regional power. So there are great incentives for Iran to acquire even a minimal nuclear deterrent (MAD is not necessary to achieve deterrence--for anyone interested see Avery Goldstein's Deterrence and Security in the 21st Century: China, Britain, France, and the Enduring Legacy of the Nuclear Revolution). Given this, and given the hawkish nature of the current administration, I fail to see why they see this move as a good idea--especially when the argument used against providing economic carrots to North Korea is that it will simply by them time to complete production. Why should we view Iran any differently?

Filed as: Iran, United States, Nuclear Proliferation