"No EU for You!"

Keep an eye on the referndum vote in France this weekend (scheduled for Sunday) over ratifying the EU constitution. France has become somewhat of a symbolic battle ground for the pro-Europe, anti-Europe crowds. France has long been a driving force in European integration and a "Non" vote in Sunday's election has many worried about its ramifications for the future of the project. The FT reported on Thursday that heads of state who are pro-Europe are undecided as to what steps should be taken if any one of the 25 member states votes "No". The two most likely "No's" at this time are France and the Netherlands (who votes in June). Current EU president and Luxemburg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker has argued that No from one country should not dictate the actions of the remaining states. Juncker notes that all 25 member states should attempt to ratify regardless of any No votes. On the other hand, Britain's Tony Blair has argued that if any state votes No the heads of the EU governments would have to debate what the proper "way forward" should be, indicating that the remaining states should not continue with their ratification measures. In any event, if the French or the Dutch vote No most European leaders would push ahead with thier votes and also push these two states to hold new referendums(even though both states have tried to "tie their hands" by stating this will be the only opportunity to ratify the constitution)--basically keep voting until they get the answer they want. In any event I think the campaign for an EU yes spells a no for Chirac in 2007 (he has indicated he may seek a third term). The French people are becoming increasingly weary of economic reforms that they view as too neoliberal (a main reason why they oppose the EU constitution) and with Chirac essentially placing his political reputation on the line for this issue I think he will be out even if he gets his Euro-yes. Stay tuned...

Filed as: EU, France